Current Geopolitical Context
The current geopolitical context involving Russia is deeply influenced by several pivotal factors, including its military activities, influence in neighboring regions, and its competitive stance against entities like the European Union and NATO.
Russo-Ukrainian War
The Russo-Ukrainian war continues to be a critical element in understanding Russia's geopolitical maneuvers. Since the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Russia has aggressively pursued its strategic objectives in Ukraine. This conflict has significantly altered the geopolitical landscape of Europe, as it is the first major war on the continent since the end of the Cold War. The invasion has prompted the EU to take measures such as opening accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova and granting Georgia candidate status, reflecting the geopolitical competition between the EU and Russia over influence in Eastern Europe.
Influence in the Caucasus
Russia's influence in the Caucasus region remains substantial, exemplified by the geopolitical dynamics surrounding the Zangezur Corridor. The corridor has become a focal point of territorial and political contestation following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire agreement. Russia positions itself as a key power broker in conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, asserting its geopolitical interests.
Eurasianism and the Russian World
The concept of Eurasianism plays a significant role in shaping Russia's geopolitical identity. This idea suggests that Russia occupies a unique position that is neither entirely European nor Asian. The concept of the Russian World further emphasizes Russia's cultural and political influence across former Soviet territories and beyond, leveraging soft power to expand its geopolitical reach.
Strategic Alliances
Russia's relationship with China is another cornerstone of its geopolitical strategy. The bilateral ties between Russia and China encompass energy cooperation, military collaboration, and a shared interest in challenging Western hegemony. This partnership has fostered a geopolitical alignment between the two nations, signifying a shift in global power structures.
Geopolitical Tensions with the West
Increased tensions with Western powers have led Russia to adopt a more fortified domestic and foreign policy. The Western sanctions and diplomatic pressures have not only influenced Russia's economic and political strategies but also its interactions with other global players. Incidents like the 2024 Ankara prisoner exchange highlight the ongoing geopolitical frictions and Russia's responses to these challenges.
Legal and Normative Influence
Russia also seeks to assert its influence through legal and normative means. This is visible in attempts to introduce legislation similar to Russia's "foreign agent" law in neighboring countries like Georgia, aiming to curtail foreign influence on civil society. These moves are part of a broader strategy to shape regional norms and legal frameworks in Russia's favor.
In summary, Russia's current geopolitical context is characterized by its assertive military activities, strategic alliances, and competition with Western powers for influence in Europe and beyond. These dynamics underscore Russia's role as a formidable but contentious player on the global stage.